← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| probability | 00gringo00 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 35% (733–1354, n=2087) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $115K | $3.5M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #853 + pinned | was PM monthly #19 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 59% (117 of 197 open) | no open consensus position | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 73% (73 of 100 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled | ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −10 pts, n=72 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 36% of 2064 at avg 36¢, ROI 0% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 60% (won 4% of 1231) | 0% | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 33% of 126) | 0% | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 5% (won 61% of 107) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 29% (won 96% of 600) | 0% | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
20 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.