Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Add:RN1 CORGII sainttroplay 00gringo00 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 primm

Traders side by side
	balthazar	BreakTheBank	beachboy4
Record (consensus markets)	54% (9273–8029, n=17302)	45% (526–640, n=1166)	68% (43–20, n=63)
Consensus PnL	$1.2M	$10.6M	$5.8M
Tracked as	PM monthly #11	PM monthly #1	was PM monthly #24
Sides with the consensus	60% (160 of 266 open)	72% (79 of 109 open)	100% (1 of 1 open)
Strongest topics	Soccer +25 pts n=2313, ROI +14% NFL +28 pts n=167, ROI +12% Weather +21 pts n=3762, ROI +20%	NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50% NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48% Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%	NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19% Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
Weakest topic	—	—	NBA −6 pts, n=92
Settled positions, side won	75% of 14708 at avg 60¢, ROI +14%	98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%	57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%
Entries under 30¢	28% (won 20% of 4153)	10% (won 85% of 53)	3% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢	6% (won 82% of 941)	36% (won 98% of 192)	29% (won 56% of 62)
Entries 50–70¢	14% (won 96% of 2101)	35% (won 99% of 187)	54% (won 51% of 115)
Entries 70¢ and up	51% (won 99% of 7513)	20% (won 100% of 107)	14% (won 86% of 29)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

8 on the same side, 29 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market	balthazar	BreakTheBank	beachboy4
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No	Yes $76	No $252K	—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $318	Yes $169K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $2.3K	Yes $82K	—
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $7.7K	Yes $56K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $798	Yes $51K	—
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $42	Yes $38K	—
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No	No $110	Yes $37K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $8.1K	Yes $26K	—
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $8.0K	Yes $24K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $7.2K	Yes $19K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $8.2K	Yes $18K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $8.2K	Yes $18K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $8.0K	Yes $16K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $8.0K	Yes $15K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $8.0K	Yes $14K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $7.7K	Yes $13K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $7.7K	Yes $13K	—
Will Republicans win Kansas and Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $8.0K	Yes $11K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $7.8K	Yes $11K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan? opposite sides · consensus No	No $8.0K	Yes $8.6K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus No	No $8.0K	Yes $8.6K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $5.8K	Yes $10K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $6.3K	Yes $6.4K	—
Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $138	Yes $12K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus No	No $8.0K	Yes $41	—
Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $6.5K	Yes $1.3K	—
Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus No	No $6.8K	Yes $854	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Michigan? opposite sides · consensus No	No $1.2K	Yes $4.4K	—
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $51	Yes $4.1K	—
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? same side · consensus No	No $4.1K	No $411K	—
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $252	Yes $272K	—
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No	No $29	No $88K	—
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No	No $382	No $40K	—
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes	No $34	No $21K	—
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes	No $261	No $10K	—
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No	No $2.1K	No $590	—
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No	Yes $321	Yes $2.2K	—