← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| probability | BreakTheBank | 00gringo00 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 35% (733–1354, n=2087) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | $115K | $10.6M | $3.5M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #853 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 59% (117 of 197 open) | 73% (73 of 100 open) | no open consensus position | 63% (20 of 32 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −10 pts, n=72 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 36% of 2064 at avg 36¢, ROI 0% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 60% (won 4% of 1231) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 33% of 126) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 0% | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 5% (won 61% of 107) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 29% (won 96% of 600) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
22 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.