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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938BreakTheBankjoseph00677ndb1
Record (consensus markets)40% (1393–2115, n=3508)45% (547–663, n=1210)53% (10–9, n=19)66% (872–458, n=1330)
Consensus PnL$40K$11.0M$5.6M$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #125PM monthly #1PM monthly #2PM monthly #22
Sides with the consensus64% (503 of 786 open)83% (157 of 189 open)no open consensus position73% (95 of 130 open)
Strongest topics
  • Economy +12 pts n=60, ROI −15%
  • Elections +7 pts n=180, ROI −15%
  • F1 +9 pts n=25, ROI −11%
  • NFL +51 pts n=139, ROI +49%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topicSoccer −2 pts, n=403——NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won48% of 1674 at avg 48¢, ROI −19%97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢24% (won 4% of 401)10% (won 79% of 58)12% (won 0% of 2)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢45% (won 43% of 745)36% (won 98% of 200)6% (won 0% of 1)20% (won 39% of 252)
Entries 50–70¢7% (won 56% of 114)35% (won 99% of 194)65% (won 73% of 11)24% (won 57% of 306)
Entries 70¢ and up25% (won 98% of 414)19% (won 100% of 107)18% (won 67% of 3)43% (won 93% of 540)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

51 on the same side, 45 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938BreakTheBankjoseph00677ndb1
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.5KYes $185K—Yes $2.9M
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $177Yes $77K—No $1.5M
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $269No $224K—Yes $1.3M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $189No $268K—Yes $559K
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $427No $407K—No $335K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $2.8KYes $291K—No $78K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $299No $133K—Yes $78K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $590Yes $93K—No $88K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $99Yes $47K—No $833
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $182No $41K—Yes $3
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $840No $125—No $3.1K
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $931Yes $278K—Yes $11K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $574Yes $46K—Yes $11K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $1.4K—No $1.4M
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $3.7KNo $239K——
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $28No $116K——
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $43K—Yes $32K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $3.7KYes $33K——
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $988Yes $35K——
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $3.0KYes $26K——
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $410Yes $24K——
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
No $918Yes $23K——
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $86Yes $20K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $1.7KYes $14K——
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $103No $15K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $14K—No $345
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $118No $12K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Kansas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $8.6KYes $3.0K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $6.6KYes $3.0K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Kansas and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $4.4KYes $3.0K——
Will Republicans win Maine and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.3KYes $5.1K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $2.3KYes $3.0K——
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $944Yes $4.3K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Maine?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.8KYes $3.0K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Michigan, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.7KYes $3.0K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Maine, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $880Yes $3.0K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $973Yes $2.1K——
Will Ohio State Buckeyes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.8K——Yes $383
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $607No $753——
Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $1.2K——Yes $156
Will the Baltimore Ravens make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $992——Yes $176
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $883Yes $216——
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $158No $632——
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $638——No $43
Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $212——Yes $458
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 AFC West?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $121——Yes $253
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $144——No $23
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1.4KYes $89K——
Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus No
Yes $762Yes $87K——
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
same side · consensus No
No $215——No $83K