Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
WarriorHBreakTheBankpleaseplease123RN1
Record (consensus markets)11% (432–3410, n=3842)45% (542–652, n=1194)49% (345–353, n=698)47% (13860–15343, n=29203)
Consensus PnL$174K$10.6M$3.2M$13.4M
Tracked asPM monthly #71PM monthly #1was PM monthly #92PM monthly #24 + pinned
Sides with the consensus85% (138 of 163 open)90% (146 of 163 open)no open consensus position67% (4 of 6 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +3 pts n=10, ROI −2%
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topicEntertainment −13 pts, n=147—MLB −1 pts, n=694—
Settled positions, side won11% of 2095 at avg 17¢, ROI −4%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%49% of 694 at avg 51¢, ROI −1%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢83% (won 1% of 1737)10% (won 82% of 56)0% (won 0% of 2)10% (won 57% of 2537)
Entries 30–50¢4% (won 36% of 87)36% (won 98% of 198)38% (won 43% of 266)22% (won 94% of 5518)
Entries 50–70¢4% (won 51% of 87)35% (won 99% of 191)61% (won 54% of 426)36% (won 99% of 8928)
Entries 70¢ and up9% (won 83% of 184)19% (won 100% of 107)0%32% (won 100% of 7821)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

84 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketWarriorHBreakTheBankpleaseplease123RN1
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $27Yes $52K——
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $429No $30K——
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $489Yes $29K——
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $17Yes $22K——
Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $11Yes $15K——
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $11Yes $14K——
Will Republicans win Alaska and Kansas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10Yes $12K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $9Yes $11K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $12Yes $11K——
Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $14Yes $10K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $10K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $14Yes $9.3K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $7Yes $9.3K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $7.9K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $7.2K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $5Yes $6.8K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Ohio and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10Yes $6.4K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Maine and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10Yes $6.4K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $5Yes $6.4K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $8Yes $5.7K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $5.7K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $7Yes $5.0K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $7Yes $5.0K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $7Yes $5.0K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4Yes $5.0K——
Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4Yes $5.0K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $4.7K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $4.6K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $4.5K——
Will Republicans win Alaska and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10Yes $3.8K——
Will Republicans win Ohio and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $5Yes $3.7K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $5Yes $3.6K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $3.6K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Kansas and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $3.6K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $3.6K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $3.6K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $3.6K——
Will Republicans win Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $3.6K——
Will Republicans win Maine and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $3.6K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2Yes $2.3K——
Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $2.2K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4Yes $2.2K——
Will Republicans win Michigan and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4Yes $2.2K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $2.1K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $2.1K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $2.1K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, and Maine?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $2.1K——
Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $2.1K——
Will Republicans win Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $2.1K——
Will Republicans win Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $2.1K——