Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BreakTheBank	00gringo00	beachboy4
Record (consensus markets)	47% (7128–8041, n=15169)	45% (542–652, n=1194)	75% (6–2, n=8)	68% (43–20, n=63)
Consensus PnL	$323K	$10.6M	$3.5M	$5.8M
Tracked as	PM monthly #167 + pinned	PM monthly #1	was PM monthly #19	was PM monthly #24
Sides with the consensus	85% (220 of 260 open)	89% (141 of 159 open)	no open consensus position	100% (1 of 1 open)
Strongest topics	MMA +11 pts n=11, ROI +16%	NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50% NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48% Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%	none with 10+ settled	NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19% Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
Weakest topic	Geopolitics −5 pts, n=1795	—	—	NBA −6 pts, n=92
Settled positions, side won	50% of 15665 at avg 53¢, ROI +1%	97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%	86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%	57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%
Entries under 30¢	33% (won 5% of 5170)	10% (won 82% of 56)	0%	3% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢	11% (won 32% of 1674)	36% (won 98% of 198)	0%	29% (won 56% of 62)
Entries 50–70¢	11% (won 52% of 1769)	35% (won 99% of 191)	100% (won 86% of 7)	54% (won 51% of 115)
Entries 70¢ and up	45% (won 86% of 7052)	19% (won 100% of 107)	0%	14% (won 86% of 29)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

77 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BreakTheBank	00gringo00	beachboy4
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus Yes	Yes $3.1K	No $292K	—	—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes	Yes $6.6K	No $202K	—	—
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No	No $6.6K	Yes $85K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $10K	Yes $22K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $10K	Yes $14K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus No	No $10K	Yes $6.4K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Maine? opposite sides · consensus No	No $10K	Yes $5.0K	—	—
Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan? opposite sides · consensus No	No $10K	Yes $2.1K	—	—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes	Yes $2.1K	Yes $172K	—	—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No	No $2.7K	No $118K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus No	Yes $865	Yes $67K	—	—
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $360	Yes $54K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $700	Yes $30K	—	—
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $155	Yes $22K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $145	Yes $21K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $117	Yes $18K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $113	Yes $17K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $115	Yes $17K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $95	Yes $15K	—	—
Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $94	Yes $15K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $100	Yes $14K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska and Kansas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $95	Yes $14K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $95	Yes $14K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $80	Yes $11K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $75	Yes $11K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $75	Yes $11K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $75	Yes $11K	—	—
Will Republicans win Kansas and Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $75	Yes $11K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $70	Yes $10K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $70	Yes $10K	—	—
Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $65	Yes $10K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $65	Yes $9.3K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $65	Yes $9.3K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $65	Yes $9.3K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine and Michigan? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $65	Yes $9.3K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $32	Yes $9.3K	—	—
Will Republicans win Kansas and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $55	Yes $7.9K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $55	Yes $7.9K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $55	Yes $7.9K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $50	Yes $7.2K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $43	Yes $7.2K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $40	Yes $7.2K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $45	Yes $6.8K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Michigan and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $45	Yes $6.5K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $70	Yes $6.4K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Ohio and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $45	Yes $6.4K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Maine and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $45	Yes $6.4K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $45	Yes $6.4K	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $45	Yes $6.4K	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska and Maine, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $40	Yes $5.7K	—	—