Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Add:RN1 beachboy4 CORGII sainttroplay 00gringo00 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241

Traders side by side
	Elias.Thornwell	BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)	78% (10078–2840, n=12918)	45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL	$84	$10.6M
Tracked as	was PM monthly #837	PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus	81% (458 of 567 open)	72% (74 of 103 open)
Strongest topics	Soccer +13 pts n=195, ROI +5% Geopolitics +10 pts n=636, ROI +5% Economy +10 pts n=227, ROI +3%	NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50% NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48% Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic	—	—
Settled positions, side won	99% of 3321 at avg 90¢, ROI +2%	98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢	3% (won 60% of 98)	10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢	3% (won 96% of 98)	36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢	5% (won 98% of 168)	35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up	89% (won 100% of 2957)	20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

14 on the same side, 32 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market	Elias.Thornwell	BreakTheBank
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No	Yes $27	No $411K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No	Yes $222	No $252K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes	Yes $8.0K	No $184K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No	No $10K	Yes $77K
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $85	Yes $56K
Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No	No $33	Yes $56K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No	No $3.5K	Yes $37K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes	Yes $3.0K	No $35K
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $15	Yes $38K
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No	No $378	Yes $28K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $68	Yes $26K
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes	Yes $1.2K	No $18K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $61	Yes $18K
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $17	Yes $18K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $1.6K	Yes $14K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $17	Yes $15K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $7	Yes $13K
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes	Yes $445	No $10K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $29	Yes $11K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $5	Yes $11K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No	No $7.9K	Yes $1.1K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus No	No $5	Yes $8.6K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Michigan? opposite sides · consensus No	No $5	Yes $4.4K
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $131	Yes $2.5K
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No	No $430	Yes $2.2K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $65	Yes $2.1K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $15	Yes $2.1K
Will Republicans win Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $10	Yes $2.1K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $10	Yes $2.1K
Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Maine? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $9	Yes $2.1K
Will Republicans win Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $8	Yes $2.1K
Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $115	Yes $1.3K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $941	Yes $272K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes	Yes $2.8K	Yes $169K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $32	Yes $71K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No	No $811	No $40K
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes	No $330	No $24K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No	No $147	No $6.4K
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $279	Yes $4.7K
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No	No $9	No $2.4K
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $23	Yes $2.3K
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No	No $1.1K	No $590
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No	No $930	No $747
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $50	Yes $967
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $2	Yes $164
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus No	Yes $9	Yes $28