Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
	BreakTheBank	Gucky-45	joseph00677	ndb1
Record (consensus markets)	45% (547–663, n=1210)	32% (749–1583, n=2332)	53% (10–9, n=19)	66% (875–459, n=1334)
Consensus PnL	$11.0M	$166K	$5.6M	$4.1M
Tracked as	PM monthly #1	PM monthly #368	PM monthly #2	PM monthly #26
Sides with the consensus	76% (84 of 110 open)	77% (176 of 229 open)	no open consensus position	70% (30 of 43 open)
Strongest topics	NFL +51 pts n=139, ROI +49% NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48% Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%	Esports +10 pts n=23, ROI 0% Culture +4 pts n=17, ROI +8%	Soccer +22 pts n=11, ROI +33%	Soccer +4 pts n=607, ROI +7% MLB +6 pts n=44, ROI +30% Other Sports +12 pts n=10, ROI +18%
Weakest topic	—	Tech −1 pts, n=166	—	NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won	97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%	3% of 2031 at avg 3¢, ROI 0%	59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%	64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢	10% (won 79% of 58)	98% (won 2% of 1997)	12% (won 0% of 2)	13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢	36% (won 98% of 200)	1% (won 29% of 21)	6% (won 0% of 1)	20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢	35% (won 99% of 194)	0% (won 67% of 9)	65% (won 73% of 11)	24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up	19% (won 100% of 107)	0% (won 75% of 4)	18% (won 67% of 3)	43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

39 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market	BreakTheBank	Gucky-45	joseph00677	ndb1
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No	No $265K	Yes $2.8K	—	Yes $544K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $55K	Yes $588	—	Yes $12K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No	Yes $1.4K	—	—	No $1.4M
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No	Yes $77K	—	—	No $1.0M
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $187K	—	—	Yes $532K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes	Yes $295K	—	—	No $73K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan? opposite sides · consensus No	Yes $52K	—	—	No $831
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No	No $43K	—	—	Yes $2.1K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus No	No $793	Yes $20	—	—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes	Yes $185K	—	—	Yes $2.9M
Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $28K	Yes $146	—	—
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $24K	Yes $57	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $24K	Yes $201	—	—
Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $22K	Yes $180	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $16K	Yes $25	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $14K	Yes $36	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $14K	Yes $53	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine? same side · consensus No	Yes $14K	Yes $69	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Michigan? same side · consensus No	Yes $13K	Yes $2	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $12K	Yes $67	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $12K	Yes $60	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska and Kansas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $12K	Yes $38	—	—
Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $11K	Yes $111	—	—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No	No $3.5K	—	—	No $7.0K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $8.2K	Yes $59	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $8.1K	Yes $106	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $6.4K	Yes $24	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $6.0K	Yes $39	—	—
Will Republicans win Ohio and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $5.3K	Yes $29	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $5.1K	Yes $121	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $4.3K	Yes $57	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $4.2K	Yes $29	—	—
Will Republicans win Maine and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $4.0K	Yes $74	—	—
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes	No $125	—	—	No $3.2K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $3.2K	Yes $16	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $2.1K	Yes $3	—	—
Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas? same side · consensus No	Yes $2.1K	Yes $2	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus No	Yes $2.1K	Yes $19	—	—
Will Republicans win Michigan and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $2.1K	Yes $2	—	—
Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $2.0K	Yes $5	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Ohio? same side · consensus No	Yes $2.0K	Yes $8	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $2.0K	Yes $20	—	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $1.9K	Yes $42	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Michigan? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $1.0K	Yes $8	—	—
2026 Balance of Power: Other same side · consensus Yes	—	Yes $8	—	Yes $1.0K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Maine? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $1.0K	Yes $15	—	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes	Yes $935	Yes $15	—	—