Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankGucky-45joseph00677ndb1
Record (consensus markets)45% (547–663, n=1210)32% (749–1577, n=2326)53% (10–9, n=19)66% (875–457, n=1332)
Consensus PnL$11.0M$166K$5.6M$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #368PM monthly #2PM monthly #22
Sides with the consensus84% (158 of 189 open)86% (225 of 262 open)no open consensus position71% (94 of 133 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=139, ROI +49%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topic—NFL −4 pts, n=52—NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%3% of 1918 at avg 3¢, ROI 0%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 79% of 58)98% (won 2% of 1883)12% (won 0% of 2)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 200)1% (won 29% of 21)6% (won 0% of 1)20% (won 39% of 252)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 99% of 194)1% (won 70% of 10)65% (won 73% of 11)24% (won 57% of 306)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 100% of 107)0% (won 75% of 4)18% (won 67% of 3)43% (won 93% of 540)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

124 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankGucky-45joseph00677ndb1
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $44KYes $251—No $835
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $30KYes $13—Yes $3
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $14KYes $70—No $345
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $46KYes $588—Yes $9.7K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $187K——Yes $1.3M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $1.4K——No $1.4M
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $77K——No $997K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
No $265K——Yes $604K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $295K——No $73K
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $231KYes $7.3K——
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $125K——Yes $81K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $93K——No $88K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $44K——Yes $33K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $183K——Yes $2.9M
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
No $407K——No $335K
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $278K——Yes $11K
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $61KYes $321——
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $34KYes $99——
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $33KYes $148——
Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $26KYes $222——
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $24KYes $239——
Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $22KYes $203——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $22KYes $74——
Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $22KYes $195——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $19KYes $56——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus No
Yes $15KYes $99——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $15KYes $128——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $14KYes $206——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Michigan and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $14KYes $32——
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $14KYes $140——
Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $14KYes $64——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $14KYes $69——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $13KYes $129——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $13KYes $118——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $13KYes $39——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $12KYes $96——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $12KYes $155——
Will Republicans win Alaska and Kansas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $12KYes $75——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $12KYes $4——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $11KYes $86——
Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $11KYes $122——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10KYes $150——
Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10KYes $147——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10KYes $105——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10KYes $48——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $9.1KYes $137——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Maine and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $9.1KYes $72——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $9.1KYes $72——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $8.2KYes $64——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $8.1KYes $90——