Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
	aHjCz	beachboy4	BreakTheBank	sainttroplay
Record (consensus markets)	32% (3674–7981, n=11655)	68% (43–20, n=63)	45% (545–663, n=1208)	71% (10–4, n=14)
Consensus PnL	$1.0M	$5.9M	$11.2M	$4.4M
Tracked as	PM monthly #106	was PM monthly #24	PM monthly #1	was PM monthly #11
Sides with the consensus	62% (99 of 159 open)	100% (1 of 1 open)	69% (75 of 109 open)	no open consensus position
Strongest topics	NBA +10 pts n=15, ROI +13% Finance +4 pts n=16, ROI +20%	NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19% Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%	NFL +51 pts n=139, ROI +49% NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48% Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%	Soccer +51 pts n=10, ROI +52%
Weakest topic	Soccer −4 pts, n=1071	NBA −6 pts, n=93	—	—
Settled positions, side won	33% of 2869 at avg 36¢, ROI +7%	57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%	97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%	100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52%
Entries under 30¢	62% (won 1% of 1765)	3% (won 17% of 6)	10% (won 79% of 58)	0%
Entries 30–50¢	6% (won 8% of 161)	30% (won 57% of 63)	36% (won 98% of 200)	50% (won 100% of 5)
Entries 50–70¢	2% (won 58% of 48)	54% (won 51% of 115)	35% (won 99% of 194)	50% (won 100% of 5)
Entries 70¢ and up	31% (won 98% of 895)	14% (won 86% of 29)	19% (won 100% of 107)	0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 51 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market	aHjCz	beachboy4	BreakTheBank	sainttroplay
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $168	—	Yes $82K	—
Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No	No $180	—	Yes $79K	—
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $182	—	Yes $54K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $178	—	Yes $46K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $183	—	Yes $39K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $184	—	Yes $34K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $184	—	Yes $33K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan? opposite sides · consensus No	No $183	—	Yes $30K	—
Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $185	—	Yes $26K	—
Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $185	—	Yes $25K	—
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $185	—	Yes $24K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $185	—	Yes $24K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $185	—	Yes $20K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $185	—	Yes $17K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $177	—	Yes $14K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska and Kansas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $186	—	Yes $14K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Michigan? opposite sides · consensus No	No $186	—	Yes $13K	—
Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $186	—	Yes $13K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $186	—	Yes $12K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $186	—	Yes $10K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $186	—	Yes $10K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $186	—	Yes $10K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine? opposite sides · consensus No	No $186	—	Yes $10K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $186	—	Yes $9.8K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Michigan and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $186	—	Yes $8.2K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $186	—	Yes $8.1K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $186	—	Yes $6.5K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $186	—	Yes $6.4K	—
Will Republicans win Kansas and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $186	—	Yes $6.1K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $186	—	Yes $6.0K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $186	—	Yes $5.1K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $187	—	Yes $4.3K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $178	—	Yes $4.3K	—
Will Republicans win Ohio and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $187	—	Yes $4.2K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Michigan? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $187	—	Yes $4.2K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $187	—	Yes $4.2K	—
Will Republicans win Maine and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus No	No $186	—	Yes $4.0K	—
Will Republicans win Kansas and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $178	—	Yes $4.0K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $178	—	Yes $2.2K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No	No $178	—	Yes $2.1K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $178	—	Yes $2.1K	—
Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $178	—	Yes $2.1K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $187	—	Yes $2.1K	—
Will Republicans win Michigan and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $187	—	Yes $2.1K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Michigan? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $178	—	Yes $2.0K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus No	No $178	—	Yes $2.0K	—
Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan? opposite sides · consensus No	No $169	—	Yes $2.0K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Maine? opposite sides · consensus No	No $178	—	Yes $2.0K	—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $186	—	Yes $2.0K	—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes	No $187	—	Yes $1.9K	—