Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankFlaznorpJhonAlexanderHinestrozaRN1
Record (consensus markets)41% (616–869, n=1485)55% (13333–10716, n=24049)54% (1454–1261, n=2715)48% (19699–21461, n=41160)
Consensus PnL$8.4M$1.4M$241K$14.9M
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #14PM monthly #176PM monthly #34 + pinned
Sides with the consensus89% (33 of 37 open)65% (143 of 220 open)no open consensus position58% (42 of 72 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Esports +44 pts n=102, ROI +43%
  • Soccer +16 pts n=1613, ROI +8%
  • NFL +20 pts n=29, ROI +15%
Weakest topic—NFL −24 pts, n=12——
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 3115 at avg 55¢, ROI +22%75% of 1749 at avg 58¢, ROI +10%94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)30% (won 9% of 919)12% (won 47% of 217)10% (won 57% of 2594)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)15% (won 37% of 455)25% (won 64% of 443)22% (won 94% of 5704)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)14% (won 63% of 439)33% (won 79% of 580)35% (won 99% of 9204)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)42% (won 94% of 1302)29% (won 93% of 509)33% (won 100% of 8622)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

29 on the same side, 21 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankFlaznorpJhonAlexanderHinestrozaRN1
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $12K—Over $1.8K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid leading at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $4.5K—Yes $1.9K
Orleans: Max Houkes vs Tom Gentzsch
opposite sides · consensus Tom Gentzsch
—Tom Gentzsch $5.2K—Max Houkes $698
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $872—Over $3.0K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $3.1K—Yes $7
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $2.6K—Over $36
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Over $446—Under $1.4K
Mushuc Runa SC vs. Delfin SC: O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $1.3K—Under $37
Exact Score: Umraniyespor 2 - 1 Boluspor?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $873—Yes $315
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Draw at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $491—No $524
Athletic Club leading at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $837—Yes $60
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
opposite sides · consensus Hornets
—Hornets $169—Cavaliers $708
FC Botoşani vs. ASC Oțelul Galați: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $516—Over $241
Mushuc Runa SC vs. Delfin SC: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $626—Over $17
Will Delfin SC win on 2026-11-09?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $619—Yes $7
FC Botoşani vs. ASC Oțelul Galați: 1st Half O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Over $412—Under $56
Exact Score: Umraniyespor 1 - 1 Boluspor?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $256—No $12
Will FC Botoşani vs. ASC Oțelul Galați end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $148—Yes $85
Spread: Rockets (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Rockets
—Nuggets $25—Rockets $146
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies
—Grizzlies $39—Raptors $129
Knoxville: Daniel Milavsky vs Kenta Miyoshi
opposite sides · consensus Kenta Miyoshi
—Daniel Milavsky $42—Kenta Miyoshi $1
Orleans: Clement Tabur vs Lukas Neumayer
same side · consensus Clement Tabur
—Clement Tabur $2.1K—Clement Tabur $25K
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?
same side · consensus No
—No $14K—No $2.4K
Bills vs. Vikings
same side · consensus Bills
Bills $16KBills $77——
Matsuyama: Billy Harris vs Liam Broady
same side · consensus Billy Harris
—Billy Harris $1.7K—Billy Harris $6.2K
CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Manta FC: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $3.2K—Under $4.4K
CE Sabadell FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Over
—Under $636—Under $2.6K
Will Mushuc Runa SC win on 2026-11-09?
same side · consensus No
—No $2.7K—No $45
Knoxville: Giles Hussey vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux
same side · consensus Geoffrey Blancaneaux
—Geoffrey Blancaneaux $169—Geoffrey Blancaneaux $2.2K
Spread: Warriors (-6.5)
same side · consensus Warriors
—Pelicans $1.8K—Pelicans $158
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 1.5
same side · consensus Under
—Over $9—Over $1.5K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Over
—Under $95—Under $1.1K
Spread: Hawks (-1.5)
same side · consensus Lakers
—Lakers $556—Lakers $495
Spread: Umraniyespor (-1.5)
same side · consensus Boluspor
—Boluspor $751—Boluspor $44
Spread: Lakers (-1.5)
same side · consensus Lakers
—Lakers $333—Lakers $461
Spread: Hawks (-3.5)
same side · consensus Lakers
—Lakers $364—Lakers $416
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 1.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $721—Under $20
Will Mushuc Runa SC vs. Delfin SC end in a draw?
same side · consensus No
—No $578—No $34
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)
same side · consensus Wizards
—Pistons $186—Pistons $248
Boluspor leading at halftime?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $173—Yes $240
Mushuc Runa SC vs. Delfin SC: O/U 1.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $31—Under $261
FC Botoşani vs. ASC Oțelul Galați: Both Teams to Score
same side · consensus No
—No $290—No $2
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)
same side · consensus Hornets
—Cavaliers $170—Cavaliers $115
Spread: Raptors (-3.5)
same side · consensus Grizzlies
—Raptors $162—Raptors $116
Mushuc Runa SC vs. Delfin SC: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $77—Under $196
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)
same side · consensus Athletic Club
—Rayo Vallecano de Madrid $246—Rayo Vallecano de Madrid $1
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $203—Under $41
Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5
same side · consensus Over
—Under $90—Under $114
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Under
—Over $51—Over $29
FC Botoşani vs. ASC Oțelul Galați: O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $4—Under $40