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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| probability | RN1 | BreakTheBank | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 35% (733–1354, n=2087) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | $115K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #853 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 59% (116 of 195 open) | 56% (82 of 146 open) | 72% (78 of 108 open) | 61% (19 of 31 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −10 pts, n=72 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 36% of 2064 at avg 36¢, ROI 0% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 60% (won 4% of 1231) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 33% of 126) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 5% (won 61% of 107) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 29% (won 96% of 600) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
33 on the same side, 28 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | probability | RN1 | BreakTheBank | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $18K | Bills $51K | Ravens $696 |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $2.7K | Raiders $24K | Jets $284 |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $1.4K | Cardinals $3.0K | Cardinals $1.1K |
| Ravens vs. Bills same side · consensus Bills | — | Bills $28K | Bills $378K | Bills $395 |
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1 | — | No $411K | — |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $2 | — | No $407K | — |
| Spread: Steelers (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Browns | — | Steelers $1.9K | Browns $297K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $238 | — | Yes $272K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $189 | — | No $252K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $157 | — | No $88K | — |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $12K | Cardinals $59K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $307 | — | No $40K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $485 | — | Yes $38K | — |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $407 | — | No $24K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $8 | — | Yes $21K | — |
| Spread: Raiders (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Jets $109 | Raiders $17K | — |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 46.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $7.0K | — | Under $1.8K |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Falcons $2.7K | — | Buccaneers $3.0K |
| Spread: Bills (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Ravens $647 | — | Bills $4.5K |
| Spread: Bills (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Bills | — | Bills $4.0K | — | Ravens $295 |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 50.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $1.3K | — | Under $2.1K |
| Spread: Bills (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | — | Bills $2.1K | Ravens $376 |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Under $2.2K | — | Over $8 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $628 | — | No $747 | — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $383 | — | No $753 | — |
| Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 48.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $1.0K | — | Under $17 |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $376 | — | No $590 | — |
| Spread: Steelers (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | Steelers $225 | — | Browns $471 |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 58.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $434 | — | Under $65 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $251 | — | Yes $258K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $275 | — | No $184K | — |
| Raiders vs. Jets same side · consensus Raiders | — | — | Raiders $171K | Raiders $5.8K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $132 | — | Yes $169K | — |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $4.3K | Raiders $104K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | Yes $121 | — | Yes $77K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $137 | — | Yes $72K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | Magic $51K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $1.4K | — | Yes $37K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $1.8K | — | No $35K | — |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $657 | — | Yes $16K | — |
| Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $9 | — | Yes $14K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | Magic $13K | — |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 64.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $9.2K | — | Under $2.8K |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $628 | — | No $10K | — |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 52.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $7.2K | — | Under $261 |
| Spread: Bills (-10.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $4.0K | — | Bills $2.7K |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $4.8K | — | Under $575 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.1K | — | Yes $4.1K | — |
| Spread: Steelers (-6.5) same side · consensus Steelers | — | Steelers $4.7K | — | Steelers $156 |
| Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $236 | — | Yes $3.0K | — |