Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankCUTJALENHURTSRN1UpTheBlues
Record (consensus markets)46% (560–667, n=1227)52% (5359–4920, n=10279)47% (13371–14881, n=28252)50% (19558–19625, n=39183)
Consensus PnL$9.4M$625K$14.8M$3.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #58PM monthly #28 + pinnedPM monthly #8
Sides with the consensus60% (15 of 25 open)57% (82 of 143 open)64% (180 of 281 open)68% (80 of 118 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • MLB +59 pts n=918, ROI +58%
  • Esports +62 pts n=67, ROI +63%
  • MMA +63 pts n=36, ROI +63%
Weakest topic—Golf −2 pts, n=108——
Settled positions, side won97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%54% of 10170 at avg 51¢, ROI +4%94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%100% of 38237 at avg 67¢, ROI +37%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 80% of 61)13% (won 19% of 1341)10% (won 57% of 2538)7% (won 99% of 2623)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 203)35% (won 46% of 3607)22% (won 94% of 5565)21% (won 100% of 7839)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 201)35% (won 61% of 3523)36% (won 99% of 9017)22% (won 100% of 8452)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 115)17% (won 86% of 1699)33% (won 100% of 8250)51% (won 100% of 19323)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

36 on the same side, 43 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankCUTJALENHURTSRN1UpTheBlues
Will AEK win on 2026-11-04?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $651KYes $333No $6.5K—
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-04?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $327KYes $8.8KYes $48K—
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-04?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $64K—Yes $32K—
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-04?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $56K—No $148—
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $1.5KUnder $21K
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $28No $18K——
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $516No $14K——
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $382Under $7.3K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid leading at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $3.1KNo $3.9K
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $2.2KNo $4.8K——
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $1.5KUnder $5.2K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Over $2.4KUnder $3.2K
Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Over $4.5KUnder $753
West Ham United FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Over $4.2KUnder $721
Frosinone Calcio vs. Venezia FC: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $1.4KUnder $2.3K
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-09-09?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $676No $2.9K
CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: O/U 4.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $268Under $2.7K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $7No $2.6K
FC København vs. AC Horsens: O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Over $2.1KUnder $154
Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
——Rayo Vallecano de Madrid $1.7KAthletic Club $223
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $3Under $1.9K
CA Rosario Central vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $535Under $1.3K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $35Under $1.5K
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $1.2K—Over $218
Will Utebo FC win on 2026-10-28?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $1.3KYes $36
Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Manchester City FC
—RB Leipzig $1.1KManchester City FC $55—
CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $742Yes $155
Oregon State vs. Houston: O/U 49.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Over $686Under $9
St Mirren FC vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $3No $689
Moreirense FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Over $509Under $76
Boluspor leading at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $162No $288
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Athletic Club
——Rayo Vallecano de Madrid $1Athletic Club $347
Spread: Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club
——Al Ahli Saudi Club $8Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club $250
Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 5.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $13Under $240
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $148Under $98
Athletic Club leading at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $90No $139
AZ vs. Willem II Tilburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $4Under $161
OGC Nice vs. Le Mans FC: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——Yes $133No $20
Will Lyn 1896 FK win on 2026-09-06?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $3No $134
Will Central Espanol FC vs. Defensor Sporting end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $84Yes $40
Stevenage FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $76Under $36
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Over $28Under $12
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $20Over $5
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
No $765KNo $14K——
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus No
Yes $22KYes $2.0K——
Exact Score: SK Slavia Praha 0 - 1 Arsenal FC?
same side · consensus No
—No $17KNo $4.4K—
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $15KYes $811——
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-11-04?
same side · consensus No
No $3.2K—No $6.5K—
Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-09-06?
same side · consensus No
——No $5.6KNo $310
Will El Gouna SC win on 2026-09-08?
same side · consensus No
——No $2.1KNo $3.1K