Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
ancianobeachboy4CORGIIBreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)59% (813–574, n=1387)68% (43–20, n=63)61% (395–248, n=643)45% (542–652, n=1194)
Consensus PnL$40K$5.8M$4.5M$10.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #763was PM monthly #24PM monthly #68PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus79% (243 of 308 open)100% (2 of 2 open)no open consensus position90% (149 of 165 open)
Strongest topics
  • Soccer +4 pts n=366, ROI +1%
  • NBA +3 pts n=110, ROI +1%
  • Economy +11 pts n=19, ROI 0%
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topicPolitics −3 pts, n=97NBA −6 pts, n=93——
Settled positions, side won59% of 1146 at avg 57¢, ROI 0%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢28% (won 6% of 321)3% (won 17% of 6)9% (won 92% of 36)10% (won 82% of 56)
Entries 30–50¢14% (won 52% of 165)30% (won 57% of 63)56% (won 99% of 223)36% (won 98% of 198)
Entries 50–70¢13% (won 62% of 152)54% (won 51% of 115)33% (won 100% of 133)35% (won 99% of 191)
Entries 70¢ and up44% (won 93% of 508)14% (won 86% of 29)2% (won 100% of 7)19% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

128 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketancianobeachboy4CORGIIBreakTheBank
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $5.5K——Yes $40K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $408——Yes $31K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $1.1K——Yes $29K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $456——No $30K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $165——Yes $28K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
No $7.3K——Yes $18K
Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $683——Yes $21K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $907——Yes $20K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $492——Yes $15K
Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $694——Yes $14K
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $724——Yes $2.6K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $299——Yes $1.3K
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus No
No $4.1K——No $902K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2.4K——Yes $172K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $5.3K——No $114K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $620——No $118K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $500——Yes $83K
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $279——Yes $52K
Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus No
Yes $123——Yes $36K
Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $95——Yes $29K
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $153——Yes $28K
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $335——Yes $22K
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $181——Yes $22K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $107——Yes $20K
Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $224——Yes $18K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $45——Yes $16K
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $635——Yes $15K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $52——Yes $15K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $12——Yes $15K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $40——Yes $14K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6——Yes $14K
Will Republicans win Alaska and Kansas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $42——Yes $12K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $21——Yes $12K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $196——Yes $11K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $37——Yes $11K
Will Republicans win Alaska and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $17——Yes $11K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $79——Yes $10K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $35——Yes $10K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10——Yes $10K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $113——Yes $9.3K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $32——Yes $9.3K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $39——Yes $9.3K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $40——Yes $9.3K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $28——Yes $9.3K
Will Republicans win Kansas and Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $26——Yes $9.3K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $5——Yes $9.3K
Will Republicans win Kansas and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $32——Yes $9.1K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $42——Yes $8.9K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $32——Yes $8.6K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $319——Yes $7.9K