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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
e46m3pleaseletmealoneRememberAmalekSineNooneEI
Record (consensus markets)17% (155–762, n=917)no settled market70% (143–62, n=205)97% (214–6, n=220)
Consensus PnL$536K$1.3K$494K$1.0M
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #432PM monthly #149PM monthly #106
Sides with the consensus73% (318 of 433 open)79% (146 of 185 open)54% (83 of 154 open)100% (1 of 1 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnot computed yetnot computed yet
Weakest topicTech ±0 pts, n=36———
Settled positions, side won93% of 626 at avg 90¢, ROI +2%———
Entries under 30¢7% (won 11% of 46)———
Entries 30–50¢1% (won 86% of 7)———
Entries 50–70¢1% (won 75% of 8)———
Entries 70¢ and up90% (won 100% of 565)———

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

52 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Markete46m3pleaseletmealoneRememberAmalekSineNooneEI
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $5Yes $211No $15K—
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $9Yes $527No $3.1K—
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
Yes $6Yes $314Yes $7.5K—
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $94Yes $30Yes $5.0K—
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
Yes $10Yes $116Yes $189—
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
Yes $4Yes $230Yes $77—
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
same side · consensus No
Yes $5Yes $2Yes $2—
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $7—Yes $3.4K—
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $5—Yes $1.1K—
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $421—No $242—
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $70—Yes $85—
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $30—No $110—
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $87—No $6—
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $26Yes $6.9K—
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
same side · consensus No
Yes $25—Yes $4.0K—
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $20—Yes $2.6K—
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $1.1KYes $598—
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 3%-6%?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $249—Yes $829—
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $108Yes $212——
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $142Yes $56—
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $5Yes $130——
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4—Yes $124—
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $95Yes $32—
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $26—Yes $89—
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $80Yes $27—
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $59Yes $20—
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $49Yes $25—
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $53Yes $18—
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $47Yes $16—
Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
same side · consensus No
Yes $20Yes $35——
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $22Yes $21——
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $32Yes $11—
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $32Yes $11—
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $29Yes $10—
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $21Yes $11—
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $18Yes $10——
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 12% or more?
same side · consensus No
Yes $14—Yes $13—
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $15Yes $8—
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $17Yes $6—
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $17Yes $6—
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $15—Yes $5—
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $14Yes $5—
Will Atiku Abubakar win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $7—Yes $10—
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 6%-9%?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $7—Yes $10—
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $11Yes $4—
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $11Yes $4—
Will Backrooms be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
same side · consensus No
Yes $9Yes $3——
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
same side · consensus No
Yes $5Yes $5——
Will Hull City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $4——
Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $2——