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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBanke46m3pleaseletmealoneRememberAmalek
Record (consensus markets)96% (291–13, n=304)17% (155–762, n=917)no settled market70% (143–62, n=205)
Consensus PnL$8.4M$536K$1.3K$494K
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #2PM monthly #432PM monthly #149
Sides with the consensus84% (37 of 44 open)73% (318 of 433 open)79% (146 of 185 open)54% (83 of 154 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=83, ROI +49%
  • NBA +47 pts n=58, ROI +46%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=160, ROI +37%
not computed yetnot computed yet
Weakest topic—Tech ±0 pts, n=36——
Settled positions, side won95% of 332 at avg 52¢, ROI +39%93% of 626 at avg 90¢, ROI +2%——
Entries under 30¢11% (won 69% of 36)7% (won 11% of 46)——
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 97% of 116)1% (won 86% of 7)——
Entries 50–70¢37% (won 99% of 124)1% (won 75% of 8)——
Entries 70¢ and up17% (won 100% of 56)90% (won 100% of 565)——

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

69 on the same side, 13 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBanke46m3pleaseletmealoneRememberAmalek
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $5Yes $211No $15K
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $9Yes $527No $3.1K
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $306KYes $108Yes $212—
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $6Yes $314Yes $7.5K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $94Yes $30Yes $5.0K
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $10Yes $116Yes $189
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $4Yes $230Yes $77
Will Ipswich Town win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $200Yes $4Yes $1—
Will Fulham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $200Yes $3Yes $1—
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $5Yes $2Yes $2
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $425KYes $11——
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $41K——Yes $75K
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $28KYes $108——
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $15K—Yes $25—
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $7—Yes $3.4K
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $2.4KYes $318——
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $5—Yes $1.1K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $421—No $242
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $70—Yes $85
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $30—No $110
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $87—No $6
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $28K——Yes $383
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
Yes $27KYes $10——
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $19KYes $369——
Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
Yes $13KYes $12——
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $26Yes $6.9K
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4.6KYes $512——
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $25—Yes $4.0K
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2.8K—Yes $6—
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $20—Yes $2.6K
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $1.1KYes $598
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 3%-6%?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $249—Yes $829
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $701—Yes $7—
Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $695—Yes $5—
Will Brentford win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $273—Yes $4—
Will Coventry City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $200—Yes $1—
Will Nottingham Forest win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $200—Yes $1—
Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $200—Yes $1—
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
——Yes $142Yes $56
Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $187—Yes $1—
Will Everton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $171—Yes $1—
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $5Yes $130—
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $4—Yes $124
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
——Yes $95Yes $32
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $26—Yes $89
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $80Yes $27
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $49Yes $40——
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $59Yes $20
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $49Yes $25
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $53Yes $18