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PolyConsensus
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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorpGC-P
Record (consensus markets)58% (4520–3295, n=7815)45% (573–710, n=1283)52% (6506–6010, n=12516)82% (5571–1211, n=6782)
Consensus PnL$7.8M$7.9M$3.3M$148K
Tracked asPM monthly #67PM monthly #3PM monthly #24PM monthly #549
Sides with the consensus50% (3 of 6 open)62% (18 of 29 open)73% (185 of 253 open)78% (72 of 92 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=53, ROI +24%
  • NHL +8 pts n=61, ROI +12%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134—Other Sports −13 pts, n=22—
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1617 at avg 55¢, ROI +27%100% of 4271 at avg 67¢, ROI +29%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)11% (won 80% of 61)29% (won 11% of 465)6% (won 99% of 259)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)35% (won 98% of 203)16% (won 40% of 255)21% (won 100% of 895)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)35% (won 100% of 201)16% (won 62% of 260)22% (won 100% of 954)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)20% (won 100% of 115)39% (won 94% of 637)51% (won 100% of 2163)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

40 on the same side, 17 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorpGC-P
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.4KYes $78K——
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $14KYes $187
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech
opposite sides · consensus Ben Shelton
Arthur Rinderknech $2—Ben Shelton $5.8K—
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $3.2KNo $865
Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $912Yes $320
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-11-06?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $1.1KYes $33
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——Yes $614No $231
RC Celta de Vigo vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $765Over $5
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-11-07?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——Yes $553No $187
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
opposite sides · consensus Taylor Fritz
——Taylor Fritz $537Arthur Fils $116
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $354No $113
Will AC Milan vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $116No $166
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
opposite sides · consensus Seahawks
——Cardinals $170Seahawks $7
Will Torino FC vs. US Lecce end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——No $4Yes $109
Will FK Kauno Žalgiris win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $37No $31
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $16No $37
Will Sunderland AFC vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $3No $24
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $8.3KYes $723
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $1.5KNo $4.5K
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $5.2KNo $543
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-11-07?
same side · consensus No
——No $4.2KNo $226
New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Rider Broncs
same side · consensus Rider Broncs
Rider Broncs $3.6K—Rider Broncs $19—
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $1.3KNo $1.2K
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-11-08?
same side · consensus No
——No $1.4KNo $370
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-11-06?
same side · consensus No
——No $810No $572
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $593No $750
Will RSC Anderlecht win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus Yes
——No $751No $535
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $289No $995
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $512No $758
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-08?
same side · consensus No
——No $846No $177
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $687No $270
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $399No $533
Aarhus GF vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $880Under $35
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?
same side · consensus No
——No $739No $133
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $247No $611
Will Inter Club d'Escaldes win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $426No $414
AC Milan vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $610Under $229
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?
same side · consensus No
——No $499No $305
Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-06?
same side · consensus No
——No $597No $192
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-07?
same side · consensus No
——No $638No $137
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $301No $411
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $601No $19
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $54No $420
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $348No $108
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $248No $152
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-07?
same side · consensus No
——No $359No $9
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-11-07?
same side · consensus No
——No $119No $243
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $260Under $39
Will AZ win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $4No $293
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-11-07?
same side · consensus No
——Yes $228Yes $45